GLP-1 & Metabolic Watch
The Oral Era Begins Without Us

The Wegovy listing that has been treated as near-certain since January has not been agreed. After failing to reach terms with the Commonwealth, Novo Nordisk has lodged a revised proposal — meaning the listing recommended by the PBAC for established cardiovascular disease with obesity, and publicly committed to by Health Minister Mark Butler, remains undated more than seven months on. The PBS Medicine Status page for semaglutide, current as at 1 August 2026, records the PBAC recommendation dated 16 January 2026 but shows the two remaining stages — agreement on listing arrangements, and final government processes — as not yet commenced. Recommended eligibility, when it lands, stays narrow: BMI ≥35 (≥32.5 for Asian, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients) plus a prior cardiovascular event such as heart attack, stroke or symptomatic peripheral arterial disease. Recheck the live PBS Medicine Status page before acting — it updates on the 1st of each month. (Sources: The Australian, "Wegovy's PBS listing would have been landmark. Now it's in doubt", 3 Aug 2026 and follow-up coverage 6 Aug 2026; PBS Medicine Status, SEMAGLUTIDE, current as at 1 Aug 2026.)

Four months after Eli Lilly withdrew from PBS negotiations over price, chief executive David Ricks publicly reopened the door: "We definitely want Mounjaro to be listed on the PBS." Ricks acknowledged three previous listing attempts, said the gap between the company's expectations and the Government's offers had been too wide to bridge, and framed the resolution in reference-pricing terms — "Australia is not an island as it comes to pricing" — indicating that a price aligned with the UK or Canada would be acceptable. He noted expert clinicians "highly recommending it for people with diabetes". RACGP Diabetes Chair Dr Gary Deed supported continued negotiation while cautioning that the Government's concerns about PBS viability are real, and that a future restricted listing may disappoint patient expectations. Australians prescribed a GLP-1 for a non-diabetes indication currently pay $200–$700 a month out of pocket. (Sources: ABC 7.30 interview, aired 12 Aug 2026; RACGP newsGP, "Eli Lilly CEO 'definitely wants' Mounjaro to be listed", 14 Aug 2026.)

Against the CEO's public intent, the formal position is unchanged. The PBS Medicine Status page for tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Mounjaro KwikPen; sponsor Eli Lilly Australia), current as at 1 August 2026, records a new PBS listing submission via the Standard Re-entry Pathway for type 2 diabetes, considered at the 6 November 2024 PBAC meeting, with the outcome "Not Recommended". Documentation lodgement, listing agreement, government processes and PBS listing are all recorded as not yet commenced. Tirzepatide is not listed on the PBS for any indication. Separately, the PBS notes that sponsors of tirzepatide have not made a submission to list it for overweight or obesity. (Source: PBS Medicine Status, TIRZEPATIDE, document 1261, current as at 1 Aug 2026.)

The MHRA authorised orforglipron (Foundayo) on 10 August 2026 for both weight management and type 2 diabetes, making the UK the first European regulator to clear the first non-peptide, small-molecule oral GLP-1. Licensed for adults with BMI ≥30, or 27–30 with at least one weight-related comorbidity, and for glycaemic control in inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes. Dosing runs once daily at any time with no food or water restrictions, escalating 0.8 mg → 2.5 → 5.5 → 9 → 14.5 → 17.2 mg with a minimum month at each step. Julian Beach, MHRA Executive Director of Healthcare Quality and Access, confirmed the agency will keep safety and effectiveness under close review. It is not NHS-funded for weight management, and UK pharmacy coverage indicates it is not yet available on the NHS at all: NICE's funding decision is due on 18 November 2026. Lilly has said it is working with NICE on the weight-management appraisal for England. The UK joins the US and the UAE, which cleared Foundayo earlier in 2026. (Sources: MHRA / GOV.UK, 10 Aug 2026; BBC News, 10 Aug 2026; Pharmaceutical Technology, 11 Aug 2026; Chemist+Druggist / Ashcroft, 21 Aug 2026.)

Neither oral GLP-1 is registered in Australia. Eli Lilly Australia lodged orforglipron with the TGA in January 2026, covering both type 2 diabetes and weight management; it appears on the TGA's register of prescription medicines under evaluation with its Australian trade name still to be advised. Novo Nordisk lodged the 25 mg oral semaglutide tablet in May 2026. No decision has been announced for either. Because neither is on the ARTG, neither can lawfully be prescribed or supplied here — and "Foundayo" is a US and UK brand name that would not be the Australian trade name in any event. Standard registration through the TGA carries a legislated timeframe of 255 working days, which places a plausible orforglipron decision in late 2026 and oral semaglutide into 2027, though neither is a published commitment. (Sources: TGA prescription medicines under evaluation register; AFR, 4 Mar 2026; Pharma in Focus via secondary reporting, May 2026.)

The TGA, assisted by the NSW Police Force, seized more than $120,000 of illicit peptide and anabolic steroid products from two residential premises in New South Wales allegedly linked to a social media influencer. Reporting on the operation identified retatrutide among the products seized, and authorities used the action to put influencers on notice that large fines and penalties apply to unlawful advertising of prescription-only and unapproved products. The seizure follows the TGA's formal escalation of unapproved peptides into its 2026–27 compliance priorities in June, and an earlier joint operation with the Australian Border Force and Victoria Police in April 2026 in which three people were charged and roughly $2 million of peptides, image- and performance-enhancing drugs and illicit steroids were seized. (Sources: TGA media release, "TGA flexes its muscle against illegal peptides and steroids", 17 Aug 2026; Daily Telegraph, Aug 2026; ABC News, 10 Jun 2026 and 2 Aug 2026.)

An SBS News investigation found GLP-1 medicines being advertised without prescription in Australian Thai-community Facebook groups, with a Melbourne-based seller offering Mounjaro 5 mg vials at $750 — roughly double the $375–$415 charged by legitimate Australian pharmacies. The finding inverts the standard assumption that illicit supply competes on price: for branded GLP-1s reaching buyers through community networks, the illegal channel is charging more, and what is being purchased is access without a prescription, not affordability. A TGA spokesperson confirmed: "It is not legal to import GLP-1 medicines or peptide products into Australia for commercial purposes without appropriate authorisation." University of Melbourne Associate Professor Trevor Steward warned against framing the issue cosmetically: "It's not about aesthetics… it's about someone's mental and physical wellbeing," requiring holistic clinical involvement. (Source: SBS News investigation, 24 Aug 2026.)

An ABC News investigation documented unregulated peptides — including retatrutide, referred to in sales channels as "reta" — being sold openly on Facebook Marketplace and distributed through Australia Post. One seller said the products were sourced from China and supplied a manufacturer's "certificate of analysis"; Dr Timothy Piatkowski noted anyone can produce such a document and that the claims are "really hard to verify… without a chain of custody". Products are routinely labelled "for laboratory and analytical research use only… NOT for human consumption", a disclaimer the TGA has previously stated does not make supply lawful. Age verification on the listings examined amounted to a self-declared checkbox. Meta said it had removed marketplace ads for peptides as violating its policies. Notably, Queensland Health and NSW Health each confirmed they had received no reports of liver toxicity from retatrutide, in contrast to the six acute liver injury cases reported by Victoria's Chief Health Officer since January 2026 — NSW Health nonetheless "strongly advises the community against the use of retatrutide, which is not a registered medicine in Australia". (Source: ABC News, 2 Aug 2026.)

Despite the TGA's escalation, illicit peptides remain openly marketed to Australians. Medscape News Australia counted 30 online vendors selling unapproved peptides including melanotan II, BPC-157, GHK-Cu, CJC-1295, TB-500 and retatrutide. An internal review of 50 Australian peptide vendors and clinics by Medical Marketing Group found 36 had websites "clearly noncompliant" with TGA regulations, naming prescription-only drugs and claiming health benefits for unapproved products; its director characterised the moment as "the beginning of the boom, not the peak". TGA enforcement in the period preceding included seizure of almost a million units of illicit pharmaceuticals — among them hundreds of peptide vials — as part of a global operation that shut down 5,700 online sellers, 27 infringement notices, and a fine exceeding $100,000 issued to a NSW individual supplying melanotan II. The TGA has also flagged concern about doctors and nurse practitioners routinely prescribing unapproved peptides, and has told The Australian it is weighing whether it can strengthen its own powers. (Sources: Medscape News Australia, Aug 2026; TGA statements via The Australian, Aug 2026.)

The TGA advised as at February 2026 that there were no shortages of any GLP-1 medication in Australia, and no new shortage declarations for registered GLP-1 products emerged in this period. New and existing patients can be prescribed and access registered GLP-1 treatments. Pharmacy compounding of GLP-1 receptor agonists has been prohibited in Australia since 1 October 2024, so the domestic integrity question is now entirely about unapproved imports and unregistered next-generation molecules rather than about compounded copies of registered products. Shortage status can change — check the TGA Medicine Shortage Reports Database before acting on supply assumptions. (Sources: PBS, PBAC advice on equitable access to GLP-1 obesity treatments, citing TGA advice as at Feb 2026; TGA Medicine Shortage Reports Database.)

Launch tracking by QYOBO verifies 13 generic companies as actively selling semaglutide in India — 14 active players including Novo Nordisk itself — against the 40 to 50 figure widely cited in media coverage. Launches were staggered rather than simultaneous: Natco and Eris from 20 March 2026, Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy's, Zydus and Glenmark from 21 March, others later. Pricing at the low end runs up to 35 times below Novo's Indian price and up to 170 times below the US price; Sun Pharmaceutical launched a weekly injection from 750 rupees (about US$8), roughly 3,400 rupees a month, against Novo's Indian retail range of 8,800–10,000 rupees depending on dose. Dr Reddy's launched semaglutide for diabetes at around 4,200 rupees a month and is targeting 12 million pens in its first year across all markets. A further 20 companies have purchased semaglutide API in the past 12 months without launching — waiting to see how far prices erode before committing. Most active players and API purchasers alike source from China, making Chinese API supply the central variable in the category's economics. (Sources: QYOBO India semaglutide launch tracking via PharmaSource, 2026; CNBC, 23 Mar 2026.)

Canada is the first G7 country with approved generic semaglutide, but the market is forming more slowly than the approvals suggest. Health Canada approved the first generic semaglutide on 28 April 2026 and a second on 1 May 2026, with the regulator indicating further decisions in the coming weeks and months. Commercial rollout has lagged that clearance: Sandoz, which had aimed to launch in the first half of 2026, now expects the Canadian generic market to take shape in the third quarter of 2026, after both Sandoz and Dr Reddy's were told to provide additional data to meet regulatory standards. Canadian pricing policy is mechanical once competition arrives: with three generic competitors on market, list-price discounts of roughly 65% follow. Aspen Pharmacare has said it will launch its generic semaglutide first in Canada and emerging markets before moving into Mexico, New Zealand, Europe and the United States. Novo's Canadian compound patent lapsed for non-payment of maintenance fees and cannot be reinstated, ending exclusivity there on 4 January 2026. (Sources: Health Canada news releases, 28 Apr and 1 May 2026; Reuters, Apr–May 2026; Benefits and Pensions Monitor citing Bloomberg, 2026; Eversheds Sutherland patent analysis; Aurisco semaglutide generics analysis, 2026.)

The most consequential generic-entry development of 2026 is a delay, not a launch. Novo Nordisk's core Chinese semaglutide patent (CN101133082B) expired on 20 March 2026, and more than ten Chinese manufacturers had generic applications in review. None has been approved. On 6 May 2026 Novo disclosed that Ozempic is entitled to regulatory data protection in China until April 2027 under the China–Switzerland Free Trade Agreement — the China marketing authorisation is held by Novo Nordisk Pharma AG, a Zurich-registered entity, and the FTA guarantees at least six years of protection for undisclosed test data from the date of approval, which for semaglutide was 27 April 2021. Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene, the first applicant, confirmed in March that its review was suspended as "subject to data protection provisions under agreements with governments of other countries". Novo had separately sought a Chinese patent term extension, which CNIPA rejected on 25 September 2025. Zhao Heng of Shanghai consultancy Latitude Health captured the surprise: "Everyone thought there were a bunch of companies — nine, 10 companies — waiting. Nobody expected this." China is the world's second-largest GLP-1 market. (Sources: Bloomberg via SWI swissinfo.ch and Seeking Alpha, 6 May 2026; NavlinDaily, 23 Apr 2026; Aurisco semaglutide generics analysis; CNIPA decision, 25 Sep 2025.)

The generic GLP-1 conversation in Australia is usually framed as entirely prospective, which is wrong. Generic liraglutide has been approved here since March 2025: Sun Pharma's liraglutide became the first approved generic to Novo Nordisk's Saxenda on 6 March 2025 across three brands (Benedo, Liraglutide RBX, Liraglutide Sun), followed by Cipla's on 12 March 2025 across a further three (Cipla Liraglutide, Liraglutide Sandoz, ARX-Liraglutide, the latter two marketed by Sandoz and Arrotex). All six carry the weight-management indication for BMI ≥30, or ≥27 with a weight-related comorbidity. Freyr's Lobezyl was also accepted for TGA review in September 2024. Australian endocrinology commentary at the time anticipated private-script pricing well below Saxenda's roughly $380 a month. The catch is clinical, not regulatory: liraglutide is a daily injection with materially lower efficacy than semaglutide or tirzepatide, and eighteen months after approval it has not displaced the weekly agents in Australian prescribing conversation or in either sponsor's commercial positioning. (Sources: Pearce IP approval alerts, 6 and 12 Mar 2025; Medical Republic, 2024.)

Novo Nordisk moved on three legal fronts in the period. On 17 and 21 July 2026 it sued Cipla and Apotex for patent infringement over Ozempic ANDA filings, and Eli Lilly for false advertising, in the United States. The advertising suit turns on comparative claims against Wegovy 7.2 mg, the higher-dose semaglutide the FDA approved in March 2026 at roughly 19% mean weight loss. On 5 August 2026 it announced that The Hague District Court had granted a preliminary injunction preventing Ceban Ziekenhuisfarmacie B.V. from supplying a compounded semaglutide nasal spray. The litigation sits against a patent map that keeps Australia and other high-income markets insulated for years: the semaglutide compound patent's European supplementary protection certificate runs to March 2031, US exclusivity to December 2031, and Novo states protection in Europe and Japan extends to 2033 on its own account; China expired in March 2026 but is shielded by data protection to April 2027 (see above), and Australia has patent term extensions available. (Sources: Pearce IP BioBlast, weeks ending 24 Jul and 7 Aug 2026; Maucher Jenkins semaglutide patent landscape; The Guardian, 4 Feb 2026.)

Eli Lilly reported positive results from two further Phase 3 retatrutide trials on 23 July 2026, delivering up to 22.6% weight loss and meeting primary endpoints in both. TRIUMPH-2 studied adults with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight; TRIUMPH-3 studied adults with severe obesity and established cardiovascular disease. The readouts bring the total number of positive Phase 3 studies for the GIP/GLP-1/glucagon triple agonist to five, following TRIUMPH-1 (28.3% mean weight loss at 80 weeks on 12 mg, up to 30.3% at 104 weeks in a BMI ≥35 extension, 45.3% achieving ≥30% loss) and TRIUMPH-4 in knee osteoarthritis (28.7% at 68 weeks with a 75.8% reduction in WOMAC pain scores). Lilly has said it plans to submit for US approval in the first quarter of 2027, with a clinical package supporting obesity, obstructive sleep apnoea and knee osteoarthritis pain. Retatrutide is investigational. It is not approved by the FDA, EMA or TGA, and cannot lawfully be prescribed or supplied in Australia. (Sources: Eli Lilly announcement and PharmExec, 23 Jul 2026; Eli Lilly, 21 May 2026; ADA Scientific Sessions, Jun 2026.)

Eli Lilly reported Q2 2026 revenue of $23.0 billion, up 48% year on year, with adjusted EPS of $8.38, comfortably ahead of analyst consensus. Mounjaro rose 91% to $9.94 billion and Zepbound 46% to $4.93 billion, together 64.7% of revenue. Foundayo — the oral GLP-1, in its first reported quarter — contributed $98 million. Lilly raised full-year revenue guidance to $85–87 billion from $82–85 billion, the second consecutive quarterly raise. The critical detail sits beneath the headline: worldwide volume rose 60% while realised price fell 13%. The largest single named cause is China. Lilly's own Form 10-Q attributes the lower realised prices primarily to the addition of Mounjaro to China's National Reimbursed Drug List, effective 1 January 2026 — the first GIP/GLP-1 dual agonist on Chinese public insurance. The trade-off was volume: Mounjaro revenue outside the US reached $5.2 billion in the quarter against $1.9 billion a year earlier, and ex-US Mounjaro ($5,152m) has now overtaken US Mounjaro ($4,791m). CEO David Ricks noted that most patients pay out of pocket for Mounjaro in large middle-income markets such as Brazil, China and India, where demand is "very strong and durable" — though for Mounjaro specifically, Chinese patients reimbursed under the NRDL no longer all do. Lilly also announced a CVS Health partnership to expand access to Zepbound and Foundayo through the CVS app, and added $4.5 billion across Indiana manufacturing sites. Analyst reaction to Foundayo's debut was muted, with the quarter landing modestly below street expectations. (Sources: Eli Lilly Q2 2026 results and Form 10-Q, 5 Aug 2026; Eli Lilly Q1 2026 results; CNBC, Reuters and Pharmaceutical Technology, 5–6 Aug 2026.)

Novo Nordisk reported Q2 2026 adjusted operating profit of DKK 33.4 billion (about US$5.15 billion), up 11% at constant exchange rates, on reported net sales of DKK 78.5 billion, up 3%. The company improved full-year guidance for adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit to between zero and −6% at constant exchange rates, from a previous −12% to −4%. The oral Wegovy pill has surpassed 5 million total US prescriptions since its January launch, with weekly prescriptions exceeding 265,000 in the week ending 17 July; Q2 pill sales of DKK 3.22 billion (about US$500 million) nonetheless landed modestly below analyst expectations. The pill launched in the UAE in June and the UK in July. CEO Mike Doustdar cited "increased US GLP-1 momentum" alongside international growth. Adjusted figures excluded DKK 6.3 billion of one-time non-cash write-downs on intangible pipeline assets, including DKK 4.0 billion tied to monlunabant, an oral obesity candidate; the same quarter carried the failure of the Phase 3 ZEUS trial of ziltivekimab. Novo also reported rapid early UK uptake of the oral pill following its July launch. On a reported basis, operating profit fell 16% at constant exchange rates. (Sources: Novo Nordisk Q2 2026 results, 4 Aug 2026; Quartz and Reuters, 4–5 Aug 2026.)

Novo Nordisk's CagriSema — a fixed-dose combination of semaglutide and the amylin analogue cagrilintide — was filed with the FDA on 18 December 2025 for weight management on the strength of REDEFINE 1 and REDEFINE 2, with a decision anticipated in Q4 2026. It would be the first once-weekly GLP-1 plus amylin combination if approved. The filing carries a complication: in the open-label head-to-head REDEFINE 4 trial reported on 23 February 2026, CagriSema achieved 23% weight loss at 84 weeks but failed its primary endpoint of non-inferiority against tirzepatide 15 mg (25.5%), sending Novo's Copenhagen listing down more than 16% on the day. Tolerability is a live question: only 57% of REDEFINE 1 participants reached the 2.4/2.4 mg maintenance dose. Novo is running additional trials, including REDEFINE 11 with data expected in H1 2027 and a higher-dose 2.4/7.2 mg Phase 3 planned to start in H2 2026. No MHRA or TGA submission has been publicly confirmed. CagriSema is investigational and is not approved anywhere. (Sources: Novo Nordisk SEC Form 6-K, 23 Feb 2026; PR Newswire ADA 2026 REIMAGINE data, Jun 2026; Clinical Trials Arena, 23 Feb 2026.)

Chinese obesity assets moved from domestic curiosities to licensed global candidates in this period, and the capital followed. Pfizer paid Hangzhou-based Sciwind Biosciences up to $495 million on 24 February 2026 for exclusive mainland China commercialisation rights to ecnoglutide, a cAMP-biased GLP-1 approved by the NMPA in January 2026 for type 2 diabetes and on 6 March 2026 for chronic weight management, with reported placebo-adjusted weight loss of 15.1%; Sciwind retains the marketing authorisation, R&D and manufacturing, and told Bloomberg on 7 June it is in "deep discussions" to expand beyond China. Innovent's mazdutide, a GLP-1/glucagon dual agonist in-licensed from Eli Lilly, is NMPA-approved and has published Phase 3 results in NEJM and Nature. Other structural deals in and around the window include AstraZeneca–CSPC, Merck–Hansoh for an oral GLP-1, Regeneron–Hansoh, and Novo in-licensing the triple agonist UBT251. The Australian connection is direct. Adelaide-headquartered CRO Avance Clinical announced on 10 July 2026 that it was taking an Asia and China growth strategy to BIO Asia–Taiwan, stating that "many Asia-based and China-based biotechs are increasingly using Australia as the starting point for early-phase development before expanding regionally and globally" — citing rapid ethics approvals, no requirement for an open IND, and an R&D tax rebate of up to 43.5% on eligible trial costs, with data accepted by the FDA, EMA, TGA and MHRA. Novotech has published a case study of a China- and US-based sponsor running a Phase 2 once-weekly GLP-1 obesity trial across Australia and New Zealand. Sciwind has said it hopes to use existing clinical data from China and Australia to support a faster US approval path. (Sources: Sciwind and Pfizer announcements, 24 Feb 2026; BioSpace and FiercePharma, 24 Feb 2026; BioPharm International, Mar 2026; Bloomberg, 7 Jun 2026; Avance Clinical, 10 Jul 2026; Novotech obesity case study; InnovationAus, 4 Jun 2026.)

The Phase 2b BELIEVE trial, published in Nature Medicine and led by Dr Steven Heymsfield of Pennington Biomedical Research Center, found that combining bimagrumab — an antibody blocking activin signalling pathways — with semaglutide produced 22% body weight reduction at 72 weeks, with 92% of the loss attributable to fat mass and lean mass largely preserved. This addresses the class's central clinical criticism: roughly a quarter to 40% of weight lost on GLP-1 therapy is lean mass. Safety signals tracked the mechanisms — muscle spasms and mild-to-moderate acne with bimagrumab, gastrointestinal intolerance with semaglutide — with discontinuations highest on bimagrumab monotherapy. The investigators argued for shifting assessment away from weight and BMI toward body composition. Context matters: Lilly, which acquired bimagrumab with Versanis Bio for up to $1.9 billion in 2023, terminated a separate bimagrumab study in type 2 diabetes patients in late 2025. Bimagrumab is investigational and not approved in any market. (Sources: Heymsfield S et al., Nature Medicine, Mar 2026; Pennington Biomedical, 5 Mar 2026; Pharmacy Times and Patient Care Online, 2026; BioPharma Dive, Sep 2025.)

This is a definitional fact rather than an estimate, and it is worth stating plainly because it is often blurred in coverage. Three injectable GLP-1 medicines are registered in Australia for weight management — semaglutide, liraglutide and tirzepatide — and none of them is subsidised through the PBS for obesity. The PBAC has twice considered Wegovy for obesity and not recommended it; its January 2026 recommendation for established cardiovascular disease with obesity has not converted into a listing, and Novo has now lodged a revised proposal. Tirzepatide's only PBS submission, for type 2 diabetes, was not recommended in November 2024, and the PBS records that sponsors have not made any submission to list it for overweight or obesity. The practical consequence is that every obesity GLP-1 prescription dispensed in Australia today is a private transaction at private prices — roughly $350–$500 a month for Wegovy at maintenance dose and roughly $280–$750 for Mounjaro depending on strength, with telehealth subscription models adding platform fees on top. Ozempic is PBS-subsidised, but only for type 2 diabetes meeting strict criteria; prescribing it for weight loss alone is off-label and unsubsidised. (Sources: PBS Medicine Status, SEMAGLUTIDE and TIRZEPATIDE, current as at 1 Aug 2026; PBS, PBAC advice on equitable access to GLP-1 obesity treatments; published Australian pharmacy and telehealth pricing, Jul–Aug 2026.)

Sigma Healthcare has confirmed it will release FY26 full-year results for the period ending 30 June 2026 on the morning of Thursday 27 August 2026, with a webcast at 10.00am AEST. The half-year result set the frame: group revenue up 15%, Chemist Warehouse Australian network sales up 17% with like-for-like up 15%, international network sales up 24.5%, normalised EBIT up 18.7% and normalised NPAT up almost 20%, gross margin steady at 18.3%, and $13 million of merger synergies realised. GLP-1 medicines were named directly as a growth driver, Management separately gave a year-to-date update — Australian Chemist Warehouse sales up 16.6% and like-for-like up 14.4%, covering the half plus the opening weeks of the second half — noting this was "as we begin to cycle GLP-1 sales from the prior year". The two pairs are therefore different periods: 17%/15% is the reported half to 31 December 2025, and 16.6%/14.4% is the longer year-to-date run. Nine further Chemist Warehouse domestic stores, 15 Amcal and 11 international stores were planned for the second half. Sigma has also disclosed a revised Australia/International segment reporting structure for FY26. (Sources: Sigma Healthcare FY26 Half Year Results ASX release and earnings call; Sigma investor calendar and ASX announcement on FY26 results timing; Morningstar and AJP coverage, 2026.)

Circana has begun tracking spending in Australian households containing a GLP-1 user. Insights Director Daniel Bone reported that 46% of Australians buy products to help manage weight, for themselves or someone else in their household, and that these shoppers over-index on Australian pharmacy retail spend — reported at around 10% above the general population — while spending roughly on par in grocery. [The 46% figure and the tracking programme are directly reported; the pharmacy over-index is attributed in secondary coverage and should be treated as indicative.] Bone's framing was that weight-management focus redistributes spend across categories rather than reducing it: "just because you are focused on weight management doesn't necessarily mean that you are inherently spending less, it just influences how you are distributing your spend." US research cited alongside found a 2% decline in food and beverage spending during six to twelve months of GLP-1 use, rebounding after discontinuation. (Sources: Circana via news.com.au, 2026.)

EY has released the largest Australian GLP-1 consumer study to date: an EY Studio+ nationally representative survey of 9,202 Australian adults conducted between January and February 2026, paired with EY-Parthenon adoption modelling. One in ten Australian adults currently report using GLP-1 medicines. Modelling puts 2036 adoption at 17.1% of the adult population in a conservative scenario, 24.1% under policy reform and 30.1% in a high-growth scenario — more than seven million adults at the upper bound — depending on pricing, access, clinical pathways and adherence. Behavioural findings: 70% of users are less likely to want alcohol, with reported alcoholic beverage consumption down 41%; users dine out 44% less often; 67% report increased motivation to refresh their wardrobe and 57% increased spending on clothes; 53% report increased focus on skincare and grooming; 51% say their food purchasing changes influence others in their household; and 57% would prefer a pill-based option. Lisa Nijssen-Smith, EY Regional Consumer Products & Retail Leader, Oceania, said GLP-1 users "are becoming more deliberate about what earns a place in the shopping basket." (Source: EY Australia, 15 Jul 2026.)

NIQ Homescan data reported in early August shows GLP-1 awareness across Asia-Pacific has reached 78%, up five percentage points in a single quarter, with 55% saying they would consider using the medicines. Seventeen per cent of Australian households already include someone taking a GLP-1 medication, with 13% using it for weight management. NIQ's April 2026 survey found alcoholic beverages recorded a net 32-point decline in spending intentions across Australia and New Zealand over the following year — among the fastest-declining categories measured. Because PBS subsidy covers type 2 diabetes rather than weight loss, consumers using the drugs for obesity typically pay AU$4,000–5,000 a year, keeping uptake concentrated among older and higher-income households, with average treatment duration between nine and 14 months. NIQ's Ferraz argued the relevant consumer set extends well beyond prescription users: "the wider health-conscious consumer is increasingly looking for the same things from food" — more protein, more fibre, better gut health, cleaner labels, more nutrition from a smaller portion, and less alcohol. (Source: BakeryAndSnacks, "GLP-1 reaches Australia and New Zealand", 5 Aug 2026, reporting NIQ data.)

Speaking at the Australian Institute of Food Science and Technology AIFST26 Convention, Australian Catholic University food and nutrition scientist Dr Emma Beckett said manufacturers now need to rethink the nutritional value of every mouthful as GLP-1 medicines reshape how Australians eat. Beckett cited forecasts suggesting more than 2.4 million people living with obesity could be using the drugs by 2030, and described the shift as one of the biggest changes to Australian eating habits in decades. The call was for a new generation of foods prioritising nutrition over portion size — food designed for people who will eat significantly less in total. (Source: Australian Catholic University, 28 Jul 2026, reporting remarks at AIFST26.)